The birth of the second President Trump triggered trade tensions and instantly transformed the global economic structure. Professor Lester C. Thurow, who was once an advisor to my company and was the dean of MIT Sloan School in the United States, stated the following in his book “The Head-to-Head” published in March 1992:

“There is a bear in the forest. Some people say they can see it clearly, while others say they can’t see it at all. Some say the bear is docile, while others say it is vicious and dangerous. If you can’t be sure which opinion is correct, wouldn’t it be wise to save up your strength to fight a bear? Just in case a bear appears.” This is a TV commercial by President Reagan from 1984.

If we put the above into President Trump’s words, it would look like this:

“The countries that are eating into US interests are those that have a trade surplus. Some say they can identify those countries, while others say their economic structure is too complex to identify. If it’s not clear which opinion is correct, then we should just go ahead and impose a 100% tariff and see how those countries respond, which will reveal the root cause of the trade deficit. So let’s try it.“